Study: North Atlantic Heat Signals Extremely Hot 2025 European Summer

Hamburg, 15 May (ONA) --- Europe is likely to face an exceptionally hot summer this year (2025), model calculations released today by Germany's Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) showed.

The MPI-M team based the conclusion of its study on ocean data.

European heatwaves are often preceded by a heat accumulation in the North Atlantic, which builds up about three years before an extreme heatwave, allowing experts to predict exceptionally warm summers up to three years in advance.

Researchers at the University of Hamburg have used a climate model developed at the MPI-M to calculate various simulations of the European climate from 1962 to 2022, including some reflecting the connection between North Atlantic heat accumulation and extreme heat.

At the end of the simulated period, the evaluation, presented in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, indicated that heat accumulation is once again on the rise - suggesting that Europe will experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2025.

The MPI-M researchers emphasized that predicting such extremes is vital for human health and damage limitation.

The frequency of heatwaves in Europe has doubled since pre-industrial times, and extremely hot summers, which currently occur every 10 years, could occur almost every year by the end of the century.

Europe experienced one of the most extreme summers on record in 2003. The death rate on the continent rose, and many European countries experienced water shortages and crop failures.

The world's oceans, and the North Atlantic in particular, have recorded exceptional temperatures in recent years. Climate experts have emphasized that this warming is far beyond natural fluctuations, and that humans are the main cause.

--- Ends/Khalid